Designing for density: the urban thesis behind our second decade

Urbanisation is the defining demographic fact of the next three decades on the African continent. The projections are widely cited and rarely operationalised: the urban population roughly doubles by 2050, with the majority of that growth absorbed by cities that are already operating beyond the design capacity of their utilities and mobility systems.

For a developer, this presents a choice. One approach is to build for the demand that exists today at the price point that clears fastest — low-density, poorly serviced stock that monetises quickly and depreciates faster. The other is to build for the city that will exist, which means density, integrated utilities and a longer capital cycle.

We have chosen the second, and it constrains our portfolio in specific ways. We do not develop assets without independent power and water provision designed in from the schematic stage. We favour mixed-use over single-use because the former holds occupancy through sector-specific downturns. And we hold, rather than trade, which forces us to live with the operating consequences of our own design decisions.

The smart-city language that surrounds this sector is largely marketing. What it should mean, concretely, is metering that produces usable consumption data, access systems that integrate with tenancy management, and a municipal data layer that allows the district operator to see failures before residents report them. Those are unglamorous systems. They are also the difference between a masterplan and a brochure.